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Reconstructions of the paleoclimate indicate that ancient climatic fluctuations on Earth are often correlated with variations in its orbital elements. However, the chaos inherent in the solar system’s orbital evolution prevents numerical simulations from confidently predicting Earth’s past orbital evolution beyond 50–100 Myr. Gravitational interactions among the Sun’s planets and asteroids are believed to set this limiting time horizon, but most prior works approximate the solar system as an isolated system and neglect our surrounding Galaxy. Here we present simulations that include the Sun’s nearby stellar population, and we find that close-passing field stars alter our entire planetary system’s orbital evolution via their gravitational perturbations on the giant planets. This shortens the timespan over which Earth’s orbital evolution can be definitively known by a further ∼10%. In particular, in simulations that include an exceptionally close passage of the Sun-like star HD 7977 2.8 Myr ago, new sequences of Earth’s orbital evolution become possible in epochs before ∼50 Myr ago, which includes the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum. Thus, simulations predicting Earth’s past orbital evolution before ∼50 Myr ago must consider the additional uncertainty from passing stars, which can open new regimes of past orbital evolution not seen in previous modeling efforts.

Given the inexorable increase in the Sun’s luminosity, Earth will exit the habitable zone in ∼1 Gyr. There is a negligible chance that Earth’s orbit will change during that time through internal Solar System dynamics. However, there is a ∼ 1 per cent chance per Gyr that a star will pass within 100 au of the Sun. Here, we use N-body simulations to evaluate the possible evolutionary pathways of the planets under the perturbation from a close stellar passage. We find a ∼ 92 per cent chance that all eight planets will survive on orbits similar to their current ones if a star passes within 100 au of the Sun. Yet a passing star may disrupt the Solar System, by directly perturbing the planets’ orbits or by triggering a dynamical instability. Mercury is the most fragile, with a destruction rate (usually via collision with the Sun) higher than that of the four giant planets combined. The most probable destructive pathways for Earth are to undergo a giant impact (with the Moon or Venus) or to collide with the Sun. Each planet may find itself on a very different orbit than its present-day one, in some cases with high eccentricities or inclinations. There is a small chance that Earth could end up on a more distant (colder) orbit, through re-shuffling of the system’s orbital architecture, ejection into interstellar space (or into the Oort cloud), or capture by the passing star. We quantify plausible outcomes for the post-flyby Solar System.

Dynamical instabilities among giant planets are thought to be nearly ubiquitous and culminate in the ejection of one or more planets into interstellar space. Here, we perform N-body simulations of dynamical instabilities while accounting for torques from the galactic tidal field. We find that a fraction of planets that would otherwise have been ejected are instead trapped on very wide orbits analogous to those of Oort cloud comets. The fraction of ejected planets that are trapped ranges from 1 to 10 per cent, depending on the initial planetary mass distribution. The local galactic density has a modest effect on the trapping efficiency and the orbital radii of trapped planets. The majority of Oort cloud planets survive for Gyr time-scales. Taking into account the demographics of exoplanets, we estimate that one in every 200–3000 stars could host an Oort cloud planet. This value is likely an overestimate, as we do not account for instabilities that take place at early enough times to be affected by their host stars’ birth cluster or planet stripping from passing stars. If the Solar system’s dynamical instability happened after birth cluster dissolution, there is a ∼7 per cent chance that an ice giant was captured in the Sun’s Oort cloud.

Each of the giant planets within the Solar system has large moons but none of these moons have their own moons (which we call submoons). By analogy with studies of moons around short-period exoplanets, we investigate the tidal-dynamical stability of submoons. We find that 10 km-scale submoons can only survive around large (1000 km-scale) moons on wide-separation orbits. Tidal dissipation destabilizes the orbits of submoons around moons that are small or too close to their host planet; this is the case for most of the Solar system’s moons. A handful of known moons are, however, capable of hosting long-lived submoons: Saturn’s moons Titan and Iapetus, Jupiter’s moon Callisto, and Earth’s Moon. Based on its inferred mass and orbital separation, the newly discovered exomoon candidate Kepler-1625b-I can in principle host a large submoon, although its stability depends on a number of unknown parameters. We discuss the possible habitability of submoons and the potential for subsubmoons. The existence, or lack thereof, of submoons may yield important constraints on satellite formation and evolution in planetary systems.